Science4Peace

The Global Conflict Risk Index and EU conflict Early Warning

The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) estimates the risk of violent conflict in 140 countries over the next four years, updated monthly.
The model defines conflict risk as a combination of two components: the probability of violent conflict occurring and its potential intensity, measured in battle-related deaths.These are combined into a composite risk score on a 0–10 scale,calculated by multiplying probability and intensity estimates. A higher score indicates both a greater likelihood of conflict and a greater expected severity.

The GCRI is a key quantitative input to the EU conflict Early Warning System (EWS). Within the EWS,these quantitative estimates are complemented by qualitative assessments drawing on country-specific expertise and reporting,to capture conflict dynamics that statistical models cannot fully represent.

To learn more about the EU conflict EWS and the EU's work on conflict prevention, visit the EEAS website.

To view the most recent GCRI results, click here. For guidance on exploring and navigating the visualisations, visit the Help section of the Science4Peace Portal.

Data and methodology

The GCRI draws on a broad set of structural risk factors spanning six categories: political, security, social, economic,geographical/environmental, and demographic. Examples include levels of democracy and corruption, economic development and child mortality, recent conflict trends, and overall levels of neighbouring conflict. These risk factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and consultations with country and conflict experts at the EEAS, and are operationalised through a larger set of model features that capture each factor at different time scales.
The model is trained on historical data from 1991 to the present,using conflict records from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). It distinguishes between three conflict categories:

  • State-based conflict (SBC): Armed conflict between a state government and at least one organised group, fought over government power or territory, resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year.
  • Non-state conflict (NSC): Armed conflict between two groups, neither of which is a state government — including fighting between rebel groups, militias, or along political, ethnic, or religious lines — resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year.
  • One-sided violence (OSV): Deliberate killing of civilians by a state government or non-state armed group, resulting in at least 25 deaths in a calendar year.

The main GCRI output is a combined risk estimate across all three types, reported as Any conflict (ANY):any instance of state-based conflict, non-state conflict, or one-sided violence in which total battle-related deaths exceed 25 in a calendar year.

Development

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) developed the GCRI in collaboration with the Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support Division of the EU External Action Service (EEAS), with funding from the Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI).The JRC regularly updates the model to improve its methodology and incorporate emerging evidence on structural conflict risks.